Notes on Conjectures and Refutations

Esquimau

波普尔的主要科学哲学著作是《科学发现的逻辑》（德文1934，英文1959）、《猜想与反驳：科学知识的增长》（1963年）和《客观知识：一个进化论的研究》（1972年）。大致说来，第一本书他提出了批判理性主义的观点，第二本建立了猜想-反驳方法论，其中自然也包括了他的“批判理性主义”；第三本他畅言“三个世界”的学说。

波普尔从爱伊斯坦和康德那里找到了两个思想来源：证伪和唯理主义。波普尔认为，现代自然科学革命表明，科学的精神是批判，也就是不断推翻旧理论，作出新发现，而科学就是理性不断作出假说，该假说不断遭到批判。所以，科学和非科学的“划界标准”不是逻辑实证主义的“可证实性”，而应该是波普尔提出的“可证伪性”判据。他进而提出，“可证实性判据”不仅不合理，而且不可能，因为它的工具即归纳法是无效的。相比之下，“可证伪性判据”是合理的。

另外，波普尔引入了“证伪度”的概念。只有可证伪的陈述才是科学的陈述，而科学陈述的可证伪度越高，即它禁止得越多，它的经验含量也就越多，也即知识含量越多。

INTRODUCTION  Onthe Sources of Knowledge and of Ignorance

-- Conspiracy theory of ignorance

British vs Continental Schools

Theory of knowledge

-- Movement of liberation ——》epistemological optimism ——》truth is manifest. Man can know:thus he can be free.

-- Optimistic epistemology: liberalism

Descartes: veracitas dei (神赐真理性)

Bacon: veracitas naturae (大自然赐真理性)

-- Conspiracy theory of ignorance

through our own sinful refusal to see the manifest truth

-- Plato主义的作用 on veracitas dei

Heraclitus & Parmenides

  不死灵魂知道一切——》Doctrine of the divineorigin or source of our knowledge

  回忆说

-- anamnesis（回忆说）

-- Bacon’s theory of induction, Baconian(Aristotelian) induction & Socratic maieutic (接生术)，基本相同

-- 代替圣经的新权威：authority of the senses (Bacon) and the authority of the intellect。失败之后的解释：’We ourselves’ who err inour interpretation of what is ‘given’ to us by our senses.

-- 转换成语义学的问题

-- What are the sources of your assertion, 可无限逆推（The Times的例子不好）

-- There are all kinds of sources of our knowledge,but none has authority.

-- 传统关于source of knowledge的问题：How can we hope to detect and eliminate error?

Popper form of nine theses:

1. There are no ultimate sources of knowledge

2. The proper epistemological question isnot one about sources, rather, we ask whether the assertion made is true—thatis to say, whether it agrees with the facts.

3. In connection with this examination, allkinds of arguments may be relevant.

4. Quantitatively and qualitatively by farthe most important source of our knowledge – apart from inborn knowledge—istradition.

5. The fact that most of the sources of ourknowledge are traditional condemns anti-traditionalism as futile. But this factmust not be held to support a traditional attitude: every bit of ourtraditional knowledge is open to critical examination and may be overthrown.

6. Knowledge cannot start from nothing—froma tabula rasa—nor yet from observation.

7. Pessimistic and optimisticepistemologies are about equally mistaken. The pessimistic cave story of Platois the true one, and not his optimistic story of anamnesis.

8. Neither observation nor reason isauthorities.

9. Every solution of a problem raises newunsolved problems, the more so the deeper the original problem and the bolderits solution.

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CONJECTURES

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1. Science: Conjectures and Refutations(1953)

-- 科学猜想和反驳

-- Distinguish between science andpseudo-science

-- 个人经验：

1919，GeneralRelativity

  Astrology,Maxist, Freud

-- Criterion of demarcation

  Criticismof Wittgenstein’s criterion of meaningfulness

-- Problem of induction, 归纳问题

  Infiniteregress

  apsychological rather than a philosophical theory ——》the fact that we believe in laws ——》 the fact that we believe in laws ——> our habit of believing in laws is the product of frequentrepetition.

-- Hume’s solution is not satisfied, weobtain knowledge through non-inductive procedure. à conjectures and refutations

-- “科学来自观察”的教条

  Prior

-- 把规律强加于自然的教条思维

-- Verify vs Falsify

  Nomore rational procedure than the method of trial and error ——> conjectures and refutations

-- 1. Induction, i.e., inference based onmany observations, is a myth. It is neither a psychological fact, nor a factoof ordinary life, nor one of scientific procedure.

2. The actual procedure of science is tooperate with conjectures: to jump to conclusions—often after one single observation(as noticed for example by Hume and Born).

3. Repeated observations and experimentsfunction in science as tests of our conjectures or hypotheses, i.e., asattempted refutations.

4. The mistaken belief in induction isfortified by the need for a criterion of demarcation which, it is traditionallybut wrongly believed, only the inductive method can provide.

5. The conception of such an inductivemethod, like the criterion of verifiability, implies a faulty demarcation.

6. None of this is altered in the least ifwe say that induction makes theories only probable rather than certain.

-- 几种观念

  probabilityand corroboration or confirmation

  

  不可行

calculus of probability

high degree of corroboration

trick of verificationism

Appendix: Some Problems in the Philosophyof Science（略）

这一章简述了induction与实证主义的不可行，唯有conjectures and refutations才是认识的唯一方法。教条必须让位于hypnoses.

2. The Nature of Philosophical Problems andtheir Roots in Science (1952)

对Englishphilosophy的批判

-- What is character of philosophicalproblems? ——> We arenot students of some subject matter but students of problems

  Arethere any philosophical problems? Wittgenstein: None

-- 分析哲学：True statements, False statements, Meaningless statements

  还原论：哲学问题成分（1）逻辑数学问题，（2）经验科学，（3）无意义的假问题。

-- 对于Wittgenstein’s view: defend theses:

First, Genuine philosophical problems are always rooted in urgentproblems outside philosophy, and they die if these roots decay.

Second, prima facie method of early philosophy.

  ——> philosophy is deeply rootedin non-philosophical problems.

-- 维特根斯坦：真正的问题：factual statements (synthetic a posteriori), logical statements(analytic priori)

-- 例子（这样的方法好）

I: Plato and the Crisis in Early GreekAtomism

  Irrationalitydestroyed Pythagorean order

-- 原子论对于change问题的解答

Parmenides——> 静态一元论

  对巴门尼德的反例六点

-- to predict all future changes in theworld ——> rely tothe detailed arguments of his Eleatic problems.

-- Plato: 打破了自然数导出宇宙论甚至几何学的希望，强调几何学的重要性

Plato transformed an original theoretical idea “the idea of explainingthe visible worlds by a postulated invisible world” into the fundamentalinstrument of theoretical science

  从哲学问题（方向）走向物理问题（细节）

-- 第二例 Kant: Critique of Pure Reason

这一章主要用于反驳Wittgenstein所谓没有哲学问题。哲学问题来自外界，并且把细节转化为别的问题。

3. Three Views Concerning Human Knowledge(1956)

TheScience of Galilee and Its New Betrayal

-- The human intellect, unaided by divine revelation,to unclear the secrets of our world

-- Instrumentalist

TheIssue at Stake

-- Instrumentalist & quantum physics

  伽利略：理论不但是工具，还是对世界某方面的描述

-- Essentialism vs Instrumentalism vs Thethird view

TheFirst View: Ultimate Explanation by Essences

-- 1. The scientist aims at finding a truetheory of description of the world

-- 2. final truth

-- 3 truly scientific theories

   Essentialnatures of thing

-- Instrumentalist Berkely, Mach, Duhem,Poincare

-- 无论本质存在与否，无助于我们的认识

-- Newton:gravityà essential nature of matter

TheSecond View: Theories as Instruments

-- Ockham razor的极端运用

Criticismof the Instrumentalist View

-- Profound differences between puretheories and technological computation rules

-- Within the limits of application——> 阻扰科学（从证伪角度）发展

TheThird View: Conjectures, Truth and Reality

-- 批判Principle of complementarity (ad hoc)

-- Third view: genuine conjectures ——> we do not now whether it istrue or not

-- If a theory is testable, it implies thatevents of a certain kind cannot happen, so it asserts something about reality

这章介绍了三种科学观，Popper的观念是“不可知论”下的假设—反驳观。

4. Towards a Rational Theory of Tradition (1948)

-- conspiracy theory of society (阴谋社会理论)

such a conspiracy never – or ‘hardly ever’—turns out in the way that isintended.

-- 前六、五世纪希腊的理性哲学为什么会发生？怎样发生？

People began to discuss these matters: (1) they were not justrepetitions or re-arrangements of the old stories, but contained new elements.(2) New tradition, systematic observation.

-- 科学区别于神话，不在于它和神话截然不同，而在于它伴有第二级传统——对神话进行批判讨论的传统。

-- 科学中，知识的积累远不及科学理论的革命变化。

这一章讲述地比较散，散谈理性传统理论，包括“阴谋社会论”，“希腊理性主义”，科学 vs 神话等等。

5. Back to the Pre-Socratics (1958)

I. -- rationality of the Presocratics

II. – the problem of change

III – traditional empiricist epistemologyand traditional historiography of science——> influenced by the Baconian myth—“observation is the true source”.

IV -- Anaximander批判Thales形成自己理论 observational experienceinduced “drum scenario”

V – the founder of the theory of spheres

  --scientific theory àorigin in observations, or so-called inductive procedures

VII – Anaximander一种修改的理论——》 地球自然是在宇宙的中信——》Aristarchus & Copernicus

VIII. – Thales: architectures of the cosmos

    -- general problem of change

IX. – Anaximenes: the successor ofAnaximander, replace the apeiron by air.

   --Heraclitus: Everything is in flux. Two new problems: the problem of change& the problem of knowledge

   --Parmenides, things are in appearance opposite, but in truth they are the same.

   --Atomists: atoms & the void: all change, and especially all qualitativechange, has to be explained by the spatial movement of unchanging bits ofmatter,-- by atoms moving in the void.

X. – 对Heraclitus的一些说明

XI. – the history from Thales to Platoà too good to be trueà thetradition of critical discussion

   --宗师的权威垄断思想，用教条捍卫学说（毕达哥拉斯）

   --Thales (maybe) founded the new traditional of freedom—based upon a new relationbetween master and pupil.

   --批判or 理性传统一下子就创立了，过了两、三个世纪，传统丧失了。

XII. – The only practicable way ofexpanding our knowledge – conjectural or hypothecal knowledge

   观测与实验作用在于其是否可用于批判理论。

   --critical discussion

Appendix: Historical Conjectures andHeraelitus on Change

这一章回顾了Pre-Socraticphilosophy认为古希腊哲学能取得如此进展的原因在于critical discussion，基于批判的observation。这种传统的建立者可能是Thales。

6. A Note on Berkeley as Precursor of Mach and Einstein(1953)

I. Berkeley—DeMotu

II. twenty-one theses:

  (2)The words ‘absolute space’ and ‘absolute time’ are without any empiricalmeaning.

  (3)The same holds for the word ‘absolute motion’.

  (4)The words ‘gravity’ and ‘force’ are misused à ‘an occult metaphysical substance’.

  (6)In physics (mechanical philosophy) there is no causal explanation.

  (7) No real essence, no internal qualities.

  (8)Appearance is reality.

(9)-(12) Natural laws

(13) A third explanation: Mathematical hypotheses à usefulness as a calculating tool.

(17) Distinguish:

    (a) observation, (b) Laws of nature, (c) Mathematical hypotheses, (d)Essentialist or metaphysical causal explanations, which have no place inphysical science.

(19) 科学解释无大价值

III. Berkeley à Ernst Mach

IV. Berkeley:原因来自神;  Mach: nothing at all behind phenomena

V. Reject essentialism

这一章回顾了Berkeley的物理思想（instrumentalism）, 认为力与引力是形而上学观念，二物理现象用“本质”解释是徒劳的。

7. Kant: Critique and Cosmology (1954)

Kantand the Enlightenment

-- A public Declaration Concerning, Fichte,反对Fichte

Kant:Newtonian Cosmology

--“The Theory of the Heaven”

TheCritique and the Cosmological Problem

-- Whether the universe had a beginning intime, 二律背反 (Antinomy) 关于宇宙时间有限的论证无法看懂

Spaceand Time

-- Conclusion: our ideas of space and timeare inapplicable to the universe as a whole.

Kant’sCopernican Revolution

-- Our intellect odes not draw its lawsfrom nature, but imposes its laws upon nature à Copernican Revolution

TheDoctrine of Autonomy

-- Revolution into the field of religion

  Youhave to create your God in order to worship in Him. 自主性认识上帝。

8. On the Status of Science and ofMetaphysics (1958)

Kantand the Logic of Experience

-- Kant: The first philosopher to apprehend“the riddle of natural science”.

-- Newtonby induction, observation statements ==> wrong: (1) intuitively not creditable(2) historical false (Copernicus, Tycho, Kepler) (3) Logically false

-- Kant: we must compel Nature to answerour question è 规律来自理性探求，而不是规律组成理性。

-- Newton’sdynamical goes essentially beyond all observations. It is universal exact, abstract.

-- The world as we know it is our interpretationof the observable facts in the light of theories that we ourselves invent.

-- Corroboration

  Degreeof corroboration can never be equated with mathematical probability.

TheProblem of the Irrefutability of Philosophical Theories

-- (1) determinist, (2) idealism, (3) epistemologicalirrationalism

【补】voluntarism(唯意志论)， nihilism (虚无主义) –》 irrefutable

-- Irrefutable:

  (a)logical sense, (2) + empirical assumptions （存在性）

-- If philosophical theories are allirrefutable, how can we ever distinguish between true and false philosophicaltheories?

-- 要了解the problem situation which induced them to propound this theory à 成为问题考古学家而从历史中评价哲学问题。

这一章首先介绍了康德的哲学观，我们通过自我的理性认识Natural Law，再评价了哲学的irrefutable，以及如何从历史角度评价哲学。

9. Why are the Calculi of Logic and ArithmeticApplicable to Reality? (1946)

I. Form: xRy, ySz, RS=T, è xTz

  Itasserts something conditionally about all relations and individuals of acertain know, while the rule of inference asserts something unconditionallyabout all statements of a certain kind.

II. Why are rules of inference applicableto reality?

V. – We call rule of inference ‘valid’ ifand only if no counter example to this rule exists à an observance of a role if inference

几种观点 (P207, A,A1, A2, B, C)

VIII. 几点，关于logical calculi applicable to reality

(a) These calculi as a rule are semanticasystems.

(b) They may be so designed that they donot serve to purpose

(c) Calculus applied to realityà may be empirically refutable;

  Notapplicated to reality àlogical formulae, irrefutable

-- “2+2=4” 的例子

IX. 这个世界用语言描述时，已经经历了一定的规范。

这一章讨论了逻辑与算术演算是否可应用于实在的问题。这种演算从两个层面上来看。它作为纯粹的形式是irrefutable的演算，而一旦运用到reality，就可经验地加以反驳。

10. Truth, Rationality, and the Growth ofScientific Knowledge (1960)

TheGrowth of Knowledge: Theories and Problems

-- 科学知识增长并不是观察的积累，而是不断推翻一种科学理论二取而代之的过程（典型的Popper观）。

-- A theory: if it passes certain tests itwill be better than some other theory.

-- verisimilitude, truthlikeness, 与probability不同

-- change in scientific knowledge vsaxiomatized deductive system (Euclid Elements)à deductive system as stepping stones.

-- science should be visualized asprogressing from problems to problems

science stars only with problems.

TheTheory of Objective Truth: Correspondence to the Facts

-- Wittgenstein—Tractatus: “projectiontheory”

-- Tarski’s theory of truth and of thecorrespondence of a statement

-- All subjective theories of truth vsTarski’s objective theory:

  Theyall stem from the fundamental subjectivist position with can conceive ofknowledge only as a special kind of mental state, or as a disposition, or as aspecial kind of belief.

-- 我们完全不可能知道它是真的。

-- subjectivism在科学哲学中rampant

  à irrefutable, 他们认为truth obtained through verification

-- 表格：objective or logical or ontological theories vs subjective or psychologicalor epistemological theories.

Truthand Content: Verisimilitude versus Probability

-- verificationist or justificationists vsfalsificationists or fallibillsts

-- truth is not the only aim of science. Welook for interesting truth, which is hard to com by.

X. – 关于 “approach more and more closely to the truth”

XI. Assuming that the truth-content and thefalsity-content of two theories t1 and t2 are comparable, we can say, t2 more closelysimilar to the truth, or corresponds betters to the facts than t1, if and onlyif

(a) the truth-content but not thefalsity-content of t2 exceeds that of t1

(b) the falsity-content of t1, but not itstruth-content, exceeds that of t2

Vs(a)=CtT(a)-CtF(a)

XII. verisimilitude, not an epistemologicalor an epistemic idea

XIV. probability vs verisimilitude

-- re-introduce Xenophanes

clear distinction between 两概念

BackgroundKnowledge and Scientific Growth

-- 各种不成问题的东西构成背景知识，通常意义知识的积累在Popper这里构成背景知识。

ThreeRequirements for the Growth of Knowledge

-- first requirement: new theory, simple,new, powerful and unifying ideaà simplicity

-- second: independently testable (NO adhoc)

-- third: some new, severe tests

  要有预言，为了排除ad hoc

XXI. If we had an independently testable theorywhich was, moreover, true, then it would provide us with successfulpredictions. à crucial experiments, newpredictions

Appendix: A Presumably False yet Formally HighlyProbable Non-Empirical Statement

(关于招引魔鬼的一个方法)

这一章讨论科学知识的增长，Popper认为知识的增长在于不断证伪中更新理论，而观察的积累只是背景知识的积累。另外他提出了verisimilitude与probability的区别，接近真理的新理论的三项要求等等，很典型的相对论物理革命下的科学哲学观。